Senior Fellow at @brookings.edu. Previously Chief Economist at IIF and Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs.https://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkfu6nz2322eI did a live stream yesterday covering the ins and outs of the blockade and closure of the Strait. Single biggest question - as long as the blockade lasts - is how high oil prices go from here. I go through my reasoning for why we don't go to $150 or $200. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-blockade-supply-chains-and-yields26 Apr 2026 15:20 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkfu6nz2322ehttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkfkxwcll22rI hear endless stories that the futures market is manipulated. It's an urban legend. Easiest way to debunk this is to look at Dated Brent versus futures. The gap has closed significantly due to Dated Brent falling towards futures not the other way around... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-myths-on-oil-and-iran26 Apr 2026 12:35 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkfkxwcll22rhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkfkbbxlzs2rHere's my discussion with @pkrugman.bsky.social from March 19 where I argued oil prices won't go to $150 or $200 and recommended the US blockade Iran. It's as relevant to global oil markets today as it was back then. The blockade is working and Iran is in trouble. https://substack.com/home/post/p-19161633026 Apr 2026 12:22 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkfkbbxlzs2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkfjmbbmy22rThis week will bring a drumbeat of physical shortage stories. Here's the deal. Brent is up 60% from before the war. That's more than 3x the rise after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The SoH is 3x Russia's oil exports to the world. The shortage is priced... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/physical-shortage-and-global-growth26 Apr 2026 12:11 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkfjmbbmy22rhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkfj5rsr3k2rThe Dollar has risen sharply due to safe haven inflows, but as soon as we get a peace agreement, those flows will reverse. My best guess is that the Dollar will fall immediately by 3 percent on such an agreement. Recent Dollar strength is a red herring... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/everything-you-need-to-know-about-b1c26 Apr 2026 12:02 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkfj5rsr3k2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkdrwavl2s2wGlobal growth is very weak. The yellow column shows what growth in 2026 would be if GDP is flat after Q4 '25. This is what people call "carryover." For France, that's 0.5% versus my forecast of 0.7% in gray. France is flatlining and many others are too... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/physical-shortage-and-global-growth25 Apr 2026 19:34 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkdrwavl2s2whttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkdlrpti522mIn the wake of COVID, supply chains got extremely stretched with long delivery delays (black lines). That's now happening again in the UK (bottom left) and Japan (bottom right), but less so in the US (top left), which is more insulated from this shock... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-oil-shock-builds25 Apr 2026 17:44 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkdlrpti522mhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkdjzdcdfs2mThe UK isn't the fiscal basket case it's made out to be. During the LDI crisis in 2022, the Bank of England kicked asset managers to the curb. It's also unwound its gov't bond holdings way faster than other central banks. No wonder UK yields are higher... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/uk-yields-arent-nearly-as-bad-as25 Apr 2026 17:13 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkdjzdcdfs2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkdixmnlbk2mIt's not obvious physical shortage of oil now should drive prices higher. Markets are forward-looking and this shortage was predictable. So the 60% rise in Brent from before the war prices much of this. Maybe we go a bit higher, but not to $150 or $200... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/physical-shortage-and-global-growth25 Apr 2026 16:54 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkdixmnlbk2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkdhdfymcc2mI covered 3 topics on this morning's live stream: (i) the 60% rise from before the war means oil already prices the physical shortfalls unfolding now, so prices shouldn't rise much further; (ii) global supply chain disruptions; (iii) rising global yields... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-blockade-supply-chains-and-yields25 Apr 2026 16:25 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkdhdfymcc2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkcy6g3as22aI'm doing a live stream this morning at 9 am (ET)to discuss where we are on the blockade and oil prices, how the physical shortage of oil and refined product are starting to show up in manufacturing around the world, and the rise in yields everywhere: https://open.substack.com/live-stream/17665425 Apr 2026 11:53 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkcy6g3as22ahttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkcxtm5s522aThere's a weird kind of double counting in commodity markets. We have a physical shortage now, but oil prices are up 60% from before the war. That rise prices exactly the physical shortage we see now. The physical shortage in oil got priced a while back... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/physical-shortage-and-global-growth25 Apr 2026 11:47 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkcxtm5s522ahttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkazm72vx22dIf Japan wants to stabilize the Yen, the BoJ just has to stop buying ¥3 tn monthly. Yields will rise sharply, which will stop any depreciation pressure. But rising interest rates mean a fiscal crisis, which is even worse than a falling Yen. Japan is stuck... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-is-the-japanese-yen-falling24 Apr 2026 17:14 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkazm72vx22dhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkayozdkcc2dRussia exports 7 mb/d vs 20 mb/d through the SoH. So the SoH is 3x as important as Russia after its Ukraine invasion, which is what markets price. Brent is up 50% vs 16% on a similar time scale in 2022. There’s no reason for oil prices to spike further… https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-high-will-oil-prices-go24 Apr 2026 16:57 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkayozdkcc2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkahyi4m4c2nI was on @cnbc.com yesterday talking about the blockade & rising oil prices with @kellycnbc22.bsky.social. We see lots of data on oil prices and what's happening in the West, but there's little data on Iran. That skews us into thinking the blockade isn't working. It is. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/04/23/oil-markets-rationally-expect-an-end-to-iran-war-soon-says-brookings-robin-brooks.html?&qsearchterm=robin%20brooks24 Apr 2026 11:58 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkahyi4m4c2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkafufxnh22nI'm doing a live stream on Substack tomorrow morning at 9 am Eastern time. I'll give an update on the blockade, how the crisis is impacting manufacturing supply chains, plus the rise in global yields with a particular focus on the UK, where we're 10y is back to 5%. https://open.substack.com/live-stream/176654?utm_source=live-stream-scheduled-upsell24 Apr 2026 11:20 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkafufxnh22nhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mkaefnzavs2nThe US last week played the blockade well. It squeezed Iran while using peace talks to cap oil prices. Iran is calling that bluff by refusing to negotiate. The US is relatively insulated from supply chain disruptions, but they're acute in Japan and the UK... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-oil-shock-builds24 Apr 2026 10:54 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkaefnzavs2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mk6f5tfnuk2aUnfortunately I fell for a phishing attack on X this morning and my account on X has been hacked. I’ve submitted a report on X, but please ignore what gets posted on my X account in the meantime. I filed a report with X to flag this, if anyone has any other recommendations, please let me know.23 Apr 2026 16:02 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk6f5tfnuk2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mk5vmlulpk2fIf you find my posts useful, please become a paying subscriber. I'll move behind a paywall in coming months and this locks in a low rate. I recently debunked myths on oil and Iran, like the spread between "physical" and "paper" oil, which is now almost gone. https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-myths-on-oil-and-iran23 Apr 2026 11:24 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk5vmlulpk2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mk5ujuu3zk2fIn Oct. '22, the Bank of England refused to keep buying gilts, in contrast the ECB that capitulated to Italy and Spain, capping their yields that summer. Markets now price yield caps for Italy and Spain, but not for the UK. That's why UK yields are higher... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/uk-yields-arent-nearly-as-bad-as23 Apr 2026 11:05 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk5ujuu3zk2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mk3qlic6uc2dThe thing about markets is that stuff only gets talked about when it's apocalyptic. The gap between Dated Brent and futures has collapsed, so no one talks about it anymore. Sign up as a paying subscriber for my daily posts if you want the full story... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-myths-on-oil-and-iran22 Apr 2026 14:49 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk3qlic6uc2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mk3qckab3c2dIn coming months, I'll be moving my daily posts behind a paywall. If you find my analysis useful, please consider signing up as a paying subscriber and lock in a low rate. That'll also allow you to message me with questions and feedback. Thank you! https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-massive-shock-for-global-markets22 Apr 2026 14:44 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk3qckab3c2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mk3jurf7ak2yWhen you run out of fiscal space, you have two options: (i) use your central bank to cap yields and pretend like nothing's wrong; (ii) allow yields to rise freely and face the pain. Only the second approach brings needed change. The UK is doing this right! https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/are-high-uk-yields-good-or-bad22 Apr 2026 12:49 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk3jurf7ak2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mk3izksdts2yThe best way to deal with a belligerent oil exporter is to cut off its oil exports. The West dropped the ball on Russia in 2022, but the US is now doing this right with Iran. Iran faces severe economic pain, capital flight and infighting. Kudos to the US... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-a-successful-blockade-looks22 Apr 2026 12:34 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk3izksdts2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mk3ibgrebk2yThere's no free lunch in macro. The Yen keeps falling because Japan uses the BoJ to cap yields. That doesn't make fiscal strain go away. It just transfers it from the bond market to the Yen. The way out is to let yields rise freely and bring debt down... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japanese-denial-on-debt22 Apr 2026 12:20 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk3ibgrebk2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mk3hsruh2c2yThe US has pivoted to a full economic blockade of Iran. You can tell it's highly effective by the state of agitation in Iran, which has descended into infighting on how to deal with this. Economic warfare isn't perfect, but it's better than actual war... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-myths-on-oil-and-iran22 Apr 2026 12:12 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk3hsruh2c2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/robin-j-brooks.bsky.social/post/3mk3hpj7nw22yThe UK gets a lot of guff for being a fiscal basket case due to its high yields, but that's not right. The counter-example is Japan, which caps yields using the BoJ (lhs), sending the Yen into a depreciation spiral. The UK approach is far better (rhs)... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/are-high-uk-yields-good-or-bad22 Apr 2026 12:10 +0000at://did:plc:ud2qlpa2iyw2yamklvfl246q/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk3hpj7nw22y