Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics. Host of the Inside Economics podcast. Co-founder of Economy.com. Views expressed here are my own.https://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mtbv6ksjhs2vThe economic angst many Americans feel has much to do with how the economic pie is being divided. From WWII to Y2K, workers received close to two-thirds of the pie, while capital received the other one-third.17 Aug 2026 14:14 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtbv6ksjhs2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3msowvhboek2zThe job market is struggling — and not just for foreign-born workers. Native-born workers are having a tough go of it, too. It wasn’t supposed to be this way, according to proponents of stiffer immigration policy. Fewer immigrant workers meant more jobs and higher wages for the native-born.10 Aug 2026 01:24 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3msowvhboek2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3ms6k3rl5ds2dSuddenly, there is a new potential threat to the economy – a serious mistake by the Federal Reserve. This risk was brought to the fore by this past week’s FOMC meeting. I’m not concerned about the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged.03 Aug 2026 12:52 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3ms6k3rl5ds2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mrukhxtsq22xThe economy is soft and vulnerable. This is the clear message in today’s GDP, income, and spending data. Abstracting from the vagaries of the data, real GDP growth is at best 2%, driven largely by AI-related investment and wealth effects that support consumer spending among the well-to-do.30 Jul 2026 13:32 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrukhxtsq22xhttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mqhy3zf43c2lI was away last week and didn’t have a chance to weigh in on the June employment report. But even though belated, I can’t help myself, as I thought the commentary was much too dismissive of how weak the numbers looked, all the noise in the data notwithstanding.12 Jul 2026 20:06 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mqhy3zf43c2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mpeb3smp4c2oThe raft of economic data released last week isn’t sending off red flares, but it is sending off yellow ones. No red flares because real GDP is still growing at a 2% pace, with AI and corp tax cuts powering business investment. But yellow flares because consumers struggle to maintain their spending28 Jun 2026 15:12 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mpeb3smp4c2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mp4kiahalc25$1,000. That's what the Iran war has cost the typical American household so far — at the pump, at the grocery store, in higher mortgage rates, and in what we're spending as taxpayers. And the total keep climbing. Full piece in The Philadelphia Inquirer: https://www.inquirer.com/economy/iran-war-consumer-costs-grocery-gas-prices-20260624.html25 Jun 2026 13:38 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mp4kiahalc25https://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3modbkxt7v22cThe Fed meets this week, and while it will be the first with Kevin Warsh as chair, it is tough to see any significant changes to monetary policy. The Fed is stuck between surging inflation, which argues for rate hikes, and a soft job market, which argues for cuts, thus no change.15 Jun 2026 12:22 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3modbkxt7v22chttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mnrvr53o3224Enjoyed joining Stephanie Flanders and Andrew Sacher on @Bloomberg's Trumponomics podcast last week to dig into a question that's top of mind for many: is the U.S. economy dangerously dependent on the wealthy? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/is-the-us-economy-dangerously-dependent-on-the-rich/id1038108799?i=100077105174708 Jun 2026 14:36 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mnrvr53o3224https://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mnad5zrvls23$100 billion. That’s our estimate of the cost of the Iran War to American households. That’s nearly $750 per household. This includes the additional U.S. military costs and the higher energy and other prices resulting from the war.01 Jun 2026 14:48 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mnad5zrvls23https://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mmwcfitsxk2dThe economy isn’t just soft, it’s struggling. That's the clear message in the flood of economic data released today. Ordered from least to most worrisome: First-quarter real GDP was revised down to just 1.6% and this includes the bounce back from the government shutdown at the end of last year.28 May 2026 15:07 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmwcfitsxk2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mmu5veku3s2sThis week’s economic data will tell a familiar story: resilience, but growing strain beneath the surface. The good, the okay, the bad and the ugly. 🧵27 May 2026 18:41 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmu5veku3s2shttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mllej4ag7s2gI wouldn’t take solace in the April employment numbers, despite the solid payroll employment gain. There are a bunch of reasons why, but one particularly worth calling out is the slide in labor force participation. This is putting a lid on unemployment as the unemployed leave the labor force.11 May 2026 13:21 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mllej4ag7s2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mkzqsyvomc2nWe have a year’s worth of economic data since Liberation Day, when President Trump announced much higher tariffs on most imported goods and countries, and the data are definitive; the tariffs have done significant damage to the economy.04 May 2026 13:13 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkzqsyvomc2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mkfvocuvts2bThe economy is growing, but it is fragile growth. Looking through the vagaries of the quarterly data, real GDP is growing at a 2% pace. Growth, yes, but less than the economy’s potential growth rate, and not sufficient to support any meaningful job growth.26 Apr 2026 15:46 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkfvocuvts2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mjuacymwzs24The economic damage from the war with Iran is mounting. Just the surge in gasoline prices has cost Americans an estimated additional $21.3 billion since the start of the war over 6 weeks ago.19 Apr 2026 15:09 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjuacymwzs24https://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mjcyl63p7k2wLast week’s economic data show just how fragile the economy is, even before the fallout from the Iran war hits with full force. Critical to whether the economy can avoid a recession is whether the consumer holds tough, and that looks increasingly iffy.12 Apr 2026 18:35 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjcyl63p7k2whttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mitgz4lcok2iDon’t take solace in the big March payroll employment gain. It comes after a big decline in February, when brutal winter weather and a labor strike at Kaiser Permanente weighed heavily on jobs.06 Apr 2026 14:11 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mitgz4lcok2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mhqmbp6fx22nWith tenuous prospects for resolving the conflict with Iran, and financial markets under pressure, recession probabilities are high and rising. We don’t yet anticipate an outright downturn in our baseline (most likely) outlook for the economy, but we’ve been aggressively marking down our forecast.23 Mar 2026 17:42 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhqmbp6fx22nhttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mh6ynvvr4c2aRecession is once again a serious threat. Even before the recent disconcerting events in the Middle East, our machine learning based leading economic indicator model put the probability of a recession starting in the next 12 months at an uncomfortably high 49%.16 Mar 2026 17:36 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mh6ynvvr4c2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mgukxkttss23The escalating conflict involving Iran is sending shockwaves through energy markets. Oil prices are swinging amid concerns about disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. Even temporary disruptions could have significant consequences. Join us for a live webinar: https://events.moodys.com/the-iran-oil-shock12 Mar 2026 14:04 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgukxkttss23https://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mg6ncdtygk2mBusinesses appear to be nearing a Cortes moment with artificial intelligence. That’s my takeaway from fintech company Block’s move to slash its workforce by 40%. While Block didn’t explicitly pin the cuts on AI, it all but did.03 Mar 2026 20:47 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mg6ncdtygk2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mfrh3fvgw22tIf you felt like last week was an economic whirlwind, you weren’t wrong. Jared Bernstein and Jim Parrott joined #InsideEconomics to sort through the SCOTUS decision, GDP numbers, and what AI, housing, and jobs say about the economy. Econ nerdfest — and worth it. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nerdfest-with-bernstein-and-parrott/id1559966912?i=100075072712026 Feb 2026 14:51 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfrh3fvgw22thttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mfhkcga6ts2uFinancial markets feel increasingly fraught to me, with the elements for a meaningful selloff coming into place. This threat is highest for stocks and corporate bonds, but even crypto, gold, and silver remain at risk despite recent pullbacks.22 Feb 2026 16:22 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfhkcga6ts2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mdvcmrizfk26New episode: Wurm on Warsh. No, this isn’t a Bavarian dish. On the latest episode of the #InsideEconomics podcast, colleague Martin Wurm joins to take a close look at Kevin Warsh as a potential next Chair of the #FederalReserve. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wurm-on-warsh/id1559966912?i=100074771611602 Feb 2026 16:52 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mdvcmrizfk26https://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mdt5r7iyic2dKevin Warsh is a reasonable choice for the next Federal Reserve chair. His obvious strength is his previous stint on the Fed during the Global Financial Crisis. He knows the institution and everyone in global central banking circles.01 Feb 2026 20:20 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mdt5r7iyic2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mdbk6kaay223The uncomfortable financial stress on low- and middle-income Americans is evident in the December 2025 consumer delinquency rates.25 Jan 2026 20:14 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mdbk6kaay223https://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mcpkv5zirc24The K-shaped economy is becoming steadily more K-shaped. That’s the message in our updated estimate of personal outlays by income group.18 Jan 2026 16:39 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mcpkv5zirc24https://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mcavf63gnk2yPresident Trump says he is directing Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac to purchase $200 bil of mortgage-backed securities in an effort to bring down mortgage rates and address the severe housing affordability problem. Fixed mortgage rates have, in fact, declined by 10-20 bps to just over 6% on the news.12 Jan 2026 20:37 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mcavf63gnk2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/markzandi.bsky.social/post/3mc65r3l4ns2iAfter cogitating a bit on the December jobs data, I’m increasingly convinced that the job market is struggling, and the broader economy is fragile, in big part due to U.S. tariffs.11 Jan 2026 18:28 +0000at://did:plc:ukiak4ak32rhftytvbigrsxz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mc65r3l4ns2i