Political analyst, Russia expert (elites, bureaucracy, government data, policy-making process). Editor at Novaya Gazeta Europe; Research Fellow at CEPAhttps://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3mmmgnkrmvd2sRecently commented for the NYT on Putin’s push to promote war veterans into bureaucracy. This isn't yet a mass takeover: the Kremlin still worries about manageability. But veterans who pass test role,even drunkard Shuvayev, the new Belgorod governor, can get integrated https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/world/europe/russia-belgorod-governor.html24 May 2026 16:57 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmmgnkrmvd2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3mkngiudta72vMy last comment for the NYT. The Kremlin pushes toward a sovereign internet, but the move against TG exposed unexpected public and intra-elite resistance. showing that many in society and bureaucracy are not ready to move as fast as Putin and siloviki want https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/world/europe/russia-internet-restrictions-putin.html29 Apr 2026 15:36 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkngiudta72vhttps://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3mi3aa7mxxz2o1/ Two pieces out this week at @cepa.org taking stock of two years under Andrey Belousov at Russian MoD. The structural changes are clearer now than they looked in real time. My text is a contunuation of previous observations, but now with the full data and visualization. https://cepa.org/article/putin-demands-more-efficient-military-corruption/27 Mar 2026 23:06 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi3aa7mxxz2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3mgswuahqyz25A new Cedar analysis maps wave of wartime nationalisation in RU. Its findings reinforce point I’ve argued for some time: this process reflects the heterogeneity of Russian elites, and as a result its limited controllability, including from the Kremlin. 1/ https://cedarus.io/research/asset-redistribution11 Mar 2026 22:32 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgswuahqyz25https://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3mgqfn6scjw2xJoined the podcast by Meduza on purges in Russian MoD so far. Discussed how it all started, why cases tend to unfold in waves, what it means for Shoigu — and what the reshuffle under Belousov tells us about changes inside the Russian war machine. In Russian https://meduza.io/video/2026/03/09/shoygu-ne-smog-ostanovit-razgrom-svoego-klana-chistka-v-minoborony-zatronula-desyatki-chelovek-srazu-chetyre-byvshih-zamministra-arestovany10 Mar 2026 22:18 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgqfn6scjw2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3mggpozyrnq25UPD on Tsalikov case over the last 36 hours. Detaining Shoigu’s longtime No.2 required a rare symphony of 3 security agencies working together — usually a sign the move was cleared at the very top. And yet all this only resulted in his house arrest. 1/ www.kommersant.ru/doc/8496117 https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/849611707 Mar 2026 01:51 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mggpozyrnq25https://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3mgdqcyw5he2jToday Russian siloviki detained Ruslan Tsalikov, Sergei Shoigu’s longtime №2 across all his previous positions: Min. of Emergencies, Moscow reg, MoD. Given how MoD purges have unfolded, it looks like the penultimate stop in the chain. The next step can be Shoigu himself www.kommersant.ru/doc/8480988 https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/848098805 Mar 2026 21:25 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgdqcyw5he2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3mfcve4cle523Today Moscow has announced the restructuring of the Gulag Museum into a “museum of the victims of genocide among Soviet people”, now headed by a war veteran. It perfectly illustrates the last years developments in the Kremlin toolkit for managing urban dissent. 1/ https://www.mos.ru/news/item/166388073/20 Feb 2026 19:57 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfcve4cle523https://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3mckxduouud2iPolitico published a story with my contribution on the power transfer in Chechnya if Kadyrov were to die. The timing is telling: amid fresh news about the car crash with Kadyrov's son, whom he is grooming as his heir in opposite to Kremlin's candidate. https://www.politico.eu/article/ramzan-kadyrov-on-death-watch-again-russia-chechnya/16 Jan 2026 20:38 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mckxduouud2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3m6fxewi3l32fA new piece for @euobserver.com an Novaya Gazeta Europe: we continue tracking, via voting behaviour, how the pro-Kremlin bloc in the EP looks. Bad news: it has nearly doubled since 2024. Good news: it’s still too small to shift outcomes and consist of the newcomers https://euobserver.com/news/ard6335aae24 Nov 2025 23:15 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3m6fxewi3l32fhttps://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3m5k62xwwzk2vMy comment for Tagesspiegel looks at Sergei Lavrov’s current position within Russia’s foreign-policy system. He has not been removed — but his centrality is being diluted as Moscow increasingly decentralises the implementation of foreign-policy decisions. https://www.tagesspiegel.de/internationales/spekulationen-uber-lawrows-machtverlust-will-putin-seinen-langjahrigen-aussenminister-loswerden-14812592.html13 Nov 2025 22:00 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3m5k62xwwzk2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3m4ytihepgp2e1/ Together with @Veer_Laine, I’ve contributed a chapter on Russia to the new Routledge volume Competing Visions for International Order (2025). It explores how Moscow imagines the world as a “sovereign state-civilisation” — a moral counterpole to the West https://www.routledge.com/Competing-Visions-for-International-Order-Challenges-for-a-Shared-Direction-in-an-Age-of-Global-Contestation/Sinkkonen-Laine-Puranen/p/book/978103291271407 Nov 2025 00:35 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3m4ytihepgp2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3m44lamfgdr2y1/ The Kremlin’s hierarchy is shifting. The new "The Economist" story with my small contibutions explains how the war in Ukraine has elevated a new class — ultra-conservatives, relatives, and "svp" veterans — while sidelining old groups and technocrats in particular https://www.economist.com/1843/2025/10/24/how-to-get-ahead-in-wartime-russia26 Oct 2025 18:53 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3m44lamfgdr2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3m34ifuwblp221/ Russia is quietly preparing a new way to send more men to war — without announcing another mobilization. A new, announced today amendment allows special reservists to be mobilized without Martial law and been sent to fight abroad https://www.rbc.ru/politics/13/10/2025/68ecccce9a79471235f95b4f14 Oct 2025 00:37 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3m34ifuwblp22https://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3lzoqna6lfd2i1/ If you’re puzzled by the recent flurry of asset seizures from Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office — and why Igor Krasnov, on his way to a “promotion,” kept signing new expropriation suits — I unpack it in the recently published commentary for Carnegie https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/09/russia-government-reshuffle?lang=ru&center=russia-eurasia25 Sep 2025 20:02 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3lzoqna6lfd2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3lzhx3oaacy221/ Russia’s Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov, before moving to the Supreme Court, launched a new asset seizure — this time against SPbGUP, the fiefdom of Alexander Zapesotsky. 🔗 www.kommersant.ru/doc/8058267 https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/805826723 Sep 2025 03:09 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3lzhx3oaacy22https://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3lzh42msm3i2h1/ New @bbcrussian piece with my comments on Russia’s icebreaker fleet and why sanctions hit especially hard in the Arctic. 🔗 https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/c5yjg68yv1vo22 Sep 2025 19:05 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3lzh42msm3i2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/kominmo.bsky.social/post/3lzehh6hzxb2jContinued my annual tradition of writing for @ecfr.eu on Russia’s local elections. The Kremlin uses these votes to test what may happen in the real campaigns In 2025 we saw the growing role of war veterans—now entering regional parliaments and expected to fill the Duma in 2026 https://ecfr.eu/article/from-battlefield-to-ballot-box-why-russia-is-drafting-war-veterans-into-politics/21 Sep 2025 17:51 +0000at://did:plc:v7dzt4ioonv3md6ve3wy5vb2/app.bsky.feed.post/3lzehh6hzxb2j