Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Sydney. Co-Editor-in-Chief of Food Policy. https://davidubilava.comhttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3mgea67lkh223The answer, to that question, is "probably no." Share of fertilizer in any food item is tiny, especially in high income countries. Farmers will bear the cost, no doubt. But much is going to depend on for how long this conflict lingers and, especially, if markets remain disrupted. [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 Mar 2026 02:08 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgea67lkh223https://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3mg6rjupxg22lWe are live. A packed two-day programme, a great set of speakers, and a wide range of topics. Our 3rd #SCoPE workshop at @sydney.edu.au has a lot to look forward to. Register and stop by if you are in town. sydneyscope.org https://sydneyscope.org/03 Mar 2026 22:03 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3mg6rjupxg22lhttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3mf5uhbnxgk2wNice coverage--and replication--of our working paper "Aid, Interrupted" by @leecrawfurd.bsky.social in a revlcent @cgdev.org blog post. Here is the link to the current version of the paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6097746 [contains quote post or other embedded content]18 Feb 2026 19:57 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3mf5uhbnxgk2whttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3mcvvmv4azc2kIt has been one year since the January 2025 suspension of USAID. In our new paper (with Annabelle Tan and @ashani.bsky.social), we treat this suspension as a natural experiment and examine how foreign aid withdrawal affects conflict dynamics. A thread: [1/7] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=609774621 Jan 2026 05:07 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3mcvvmv4azc2khttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3maeikampu22tICYMI #econsky #polisky [contains quote post or other embedded content]19 Dec 2025 20:07 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3maeikampu22thttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3maa6vpcrsk22Call for papers: The Social Conflict and Political Economy (SCoPE) workshop will be held at the University of Sydney on 31 March–1 April 2026. Please send papers (or extended abstracts) to the workshop email. Link to the call and previous programmes: sydneyscope.org18 Dec 2025 03:04 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3maa6vpcrsk22https://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3m62fy4y5zk2nOur paper on harvest-time changes in conflict, violence, and social unrest has been assigned to a volume and issue (makes it easier to cite). It offers some valuable insights, in my opinion. Luckily, it is also open access, so feel free to check it out: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343324130599020 Nov 2025 09:04 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3m62fy4y5zk2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3m47tuk6dp22sDo commodity price spikes cause social unrest? They do. But when we focus on local prices of a locally produced cereal—maize—we find the relationship is negative, on average. This is a baseline result of our new working paper with Aaron Humphreys. [1/9] https://davidubilava.com/Papers/protests.pdf28 Oct 2025 02:05 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3m47tuk6dp22shttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3lqnrjw4kpk2yWe have a superb lineup of 18 speakers representing 10 universities from across four countries. Really excited about this one! [contains quote post or other embedded content]02 Jun 2025 21:59 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3lqnrjw4kpk2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3lksj3g7xrc2m1/ Does conflict intensify at harvest time in agricultural regions? Our new study explores this question in the context of Southeast Asia. Read the paper for the full story, or read this thread for tl;dr. [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 Mar 2025 10:40 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3lksj3g7xrc2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3lkpgujp65c2pGreat to see this one out in the wilderness. I will do a thread in due course. Until then, enjoy the free access to the full text. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343324130599019 Mar 2025 05:22 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkpgujp65c2phttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3ljua2tatis2l"Dear passengers, we apologise for a slight delay. We will soon take off, once we sort out a minor technical issue." [contains quote post or other embedded content]08 Mar 2025 09:38 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3ljua2tatis2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3lgyeav4gp22oIf you're the kind of person who waits until the last minute, the wait is over. Submit your paper or extended abstract for the 2nd SCoPE workshop to be held in Sydney on 3-4 June by the end of the day. [contains quote post or other embedded content]30 Jan 2025 20:48 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3lgyeav4gp22ohttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3lepitprzwc2kWhat has development economics become? Marc Bellemare presents his view in his recent blog post (one of many in 2025, by the sounds of it—in and of itself, great news for applied economists). https://marcfbellemare.com/wordpress/1426801 Jan 2025 21:26 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3lepitprzwc2khttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3lcgwjbs3lt2xForgot to add the magic tag. Here goes: #EconSky [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Dec 2024 00:46 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3lcgwjbs3lt2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3lcgvzcjw7c2xThe climate–conflict nexus is an active area of research. I examine how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks affect political violence in Africa. Headline result: Exposure to a positive ENSO shock (an El Niño event) reduces postharvest conflict. [1/13] https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.1250404 Dec 2024 00:38 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3lcgvzcjw7c2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3lcfkry7qak2nMy paper "Climate, crops, and postharvest conflict" is now forthcoming in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics. A thread will follow. In the meantime, here is the link to the publication: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/author/FUCCVMR7NSCDYSHMQHFM?target=10.1111/ajae.1250403 Dec 2024 11:44 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3lcfkry7qak2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/davidubilava.bsky.social/post/3lbsok4ms2s25One thing still missing on this platform is people treating it as an airline customer service portal for their complaints.25 Nov 2024 23:31 +0000at://did:plc:ve5lyixgsupakehu5fkx65if/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbsok4ms2s25