Predictions and analysis for League, AFL and Netball (and sometimes elections). #rstats, data and programming enthusiast tcau.dev (website) and thecruncherau.substack.com (blog)https://bsky.app/profile/tcau.devhttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mutowduiy223On the Pythagorean ladder, the Cowboys were 2026's luckiest team, while the Sea Eagles were the most unlucky06 Sep 2026 09:35 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mutowduiy223https://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3msxailjmfk2zSimulation results before Round 24 of the NRL13 Aug 2026 08:37 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3msxailjmfk2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mswnsohgok24Most likely matchups in Week 1 of NRL Finals13 Aug 2026 03:03 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mswnsohgok24https://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3msfkprbik22cHow many wins will each position on the NRL Ladder finish with this season?06 Aug 2026 07:52 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3msfkprbik22chttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mpnh7tflys2bI'm pleased to announce that my Ladder Predictor tool is now live for Women's NRL. With the season starting tonight, it's never been a better time to get your predictions done. Try it out at tcau.dev/nrlw-predictor02 Jul 2026 06:55 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mpnh7tflys2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mosc7pzlys2tRan the optimizer for the first time this NRL season: - Panthers can finish as low as 16th (as below) - Dragons can finish as high as 3rd - Every other team can finish anywhere21 Jun 2026 11:44 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mosc7pzlys2thttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mosc7pzlys2tRan the optimizer for the first time this NRL season: - Panthers can finish as low as 16th (as below) - Dragons can finish as high as 3rd - Every other team can finish anywhere21 Jun 2026 11:44 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mosc7pzlys2thttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mng6uo2qos2jFun fact: there are currently 73,528 ways you could order the teams and get a Circle of Parity [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Jun 2026 22:47 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mng6uo2qos2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mne46bucgs22With the Dragons' win against the Broncos, the 2026 NRL Circle of Parity is complete03 Jun 2026 02:53 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mne46bucgs22https://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mmapoi27522q🚨 Least Surprising NRL Results Update: The Panthers' unsurprising Magic Round win slides into 8th place on the leaderboard20 May 2026 01:06 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmapoi27522qhttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mk57yq6etk2yMost Surprising NRL Results - since 200923 Apr 2026 04:57 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk57yq6etk2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mk5a2cg7z22yLeast Surprising NRL Results - since 200923 Apr 2026 04:58 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk5a2cg7z22yhttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mk57yq6etk2yMost Surprising NRL Results - since 200923 Apr 2026 04:57 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk57yq6etk2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mk4zc4vaas2iNEW ARTICLE: Is the 2026 NRL season really "unpredictable"? I use a variety of criteria to investigate whether this season truly has been unpredictable.23 Apr 2026 02:57 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk4zc4vaas2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mjdbwp5oq22zNRL Match Path Update - Round 6 The longest cycle is up to 13 teams long, and the longest chain up to 17.12 Apr 2026 21:23 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjdbwp5oq22zhttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mjdbwp5oq22zNRL Match Path Update - Round 6 The longest cycle is up to 13 teams long, and the longest chain up to 17.12 Apr 2026 21:23 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjdbwp5oq22zhttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mjb52clawc2kNEW: AFL Team Icons (home and away/clash) are now available on Predictor and throughout the website12 Apr 2026 00:50 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjb52clawc2khttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mjb4znztss2kNEW: NRL Team Icons (home and away) are now available on Predictor and throughout the website12 Apr 2026 00:50 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjb4znztss2khttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mjb46p2ifs2balso new this morning is a makeover of the site's navigation12 Apr 2026 00:35 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjb46p2ifs2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mix7nefkxk27NRL Match Path Update - Round 508 Apr 2026 02:10 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mix7nefkxk27https://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mi6t4eyelk23Panthers are WAY ahead on the latest model ratings29 Mar 2026 09:22 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi6t4eyelk23https://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mi6ne2yfsk2rKayo seems to make my computer really slow lately :/29 Mar 2026 07:39 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi6ne2yfsk2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mhwh7f6nck27AFL Match Path Update - Round 2 No cycles yet, but the longest path is up to 10 teams long: Suns-Cats-Freo-Dees-Saints-Giants-Hawks-Swans-Carlton-Richmond26 Mar 2026 01:27 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhwh7f6nck27https://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mhuhjkmj6s2mit's crazy what making your page's description visible to Google can do25 Mar 2026 06:28 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhuhjkmj6s2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mhotxvptl227NRL Match Chain Update - Round 3 We have our first mini circle of parity: Broncos-Storm-Eels, and the longest chain is 6 teams long: Warriors-Roosters-Rabbitohs-Dolphins-Sharks-Titans23 Mar 2026 00:54 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhotxvptl227https://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mhmzzkndqs2sIf only Flanno had told his players this before the match, could've really helped out #NRLEelsDragons22 Mar 2026 07:37 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhmzzkndqs2shttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mgjb27n5c22k37% of losing NRL teams from 2023-2026 have had more possessions than their opposition. None have so far in 2026.08 Mar 2026 02:07 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgjb27n5c22khttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mghjknh34k2wI'm scared to read the xScore for this first half #AFLLionsDogs07 Mar 2026 09:34 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mghjknh34k2whttps://bsky.app/profile/tcau.dev/post/3mghgmlvons2fummm #NRLManlyRaiders07 Mar 2026 08:42 +0000at://did:plc:vpdctnstbxvre2trykzcetiz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mghgmlvons2f