Product management in AI/ML, fintech, data platforms, API, and analytics. ❤️ open source. Building a stock signal app. Nothing should be construed as financial advice. Opinions are my own and not my employer’s.https://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mtzdpo5kw22aIf consumer confidence keeps falling lower and lower, it will hurt consumer discretionary, and especially retail stocks hard. $XRT $XLY $NKE $LULU $UA $AEO are especially at risk. Coupled with today’s hot PCE inflation report, the risks are even bigger.26 Aug 2026 22:05 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtzdpo5kw22ahttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mtuevbd3lk2kIf this is true, then Nvidia is underwriting and backstopping a whole lot of bad deals. Depending on the terms of the guarantees, if any of these AI companies go belly up, it could negatively affect Nvidia stock as well because they have to dip into their free cash flows. https://x.com/kakashiii111/status/2091867643871662087?s=4624 Aug 2026 22:43 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtuevbd3lk2khttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mtozm4d2c22dThe majority of AI data centers yet to be built have faced opposition and this will constrain compute. Thus, the more efficient Chinese open-source models will be used instead and this will put the revenues of Anthropic and OpenAI at risk. The semis will also get more efficient at power usage.22 Aug 2026 19:38 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtozm4d2c22dhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mtnn6afv4c2qJamin Ball mentions how more headcount is needed to increase the TAM of AI. Yet, many companies are laying off humans. He compares Snowflake to Teradata back in 2017. The latter is in a specific category of databases while AI has many unproven categories https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-judgement-82126-what-could22 Aug 2026 06:22 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtnn6afv4c2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mtjww2s2vk2jTake a look at the charts of the rising 30 year yield and the dollar index. In January 2024, the dollar index had really gone up on the assumption that money would flow into America. Strangely, the yield had fallen. Now, the yield is at all-time high, but the dollar is falling.20 Aug 2026 19:06 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtjww2s2vk2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mtjtj2vq6c24After the blockbuster earnings season, there’s a tremendous amount of bullishness about next quarter and the consensus amongst fund managers is that we will have a “no landing” scenario. When expectations are this high, even the slightest mishap can cause the market to tumble.20 Aug 2026 18:05 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtjtj2vq6c24https://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mthaskr3222jI bought Moderna in late 2024 in the $40 range and sold it for a slight profit in February of this year because the stock was moving sideways? Thankfully, I still hold Merck and have held the same tranche since March 2015. Also have $IBB and $XBI for many years. Biotech is a volatile industry!19 Aug 2026 17:25 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mthaskr3222jhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mtdcpfnno22yFrom this week’s Simply Wall Street: the Europeans are literally regulating themselves to death when it comes to AC. There are some buildings in France where you have one of the most restrictive retrofit rules. This could be a good opportunity for Carrier to go in and capture some revenue.18 Aug 2026 03:48 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtdcpfnno22yhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mt5ymmbp6s2kThere’s a detail everyone’s missing: $AMAT only provided forecasts until 2027 because that is the date for which their customers have provided forecasts. Where are these growth estimates for 2030 coming from when the semis themselves only have line of sight until 2027? https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/08/14/applied-materials-falls-3-percent-despite-beating-estimates16 Aug 2026 01:05 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mt5ymmbp6s2khttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mt5wxhh4sc2mAll components of inflation are coming down but it’s been stuck above 2.5% for a while now. If it doesn’t come down fast enough, the Fed will raise rates. The other wild card here is the cost of computer peripherals which have gone up and is a major portion of inflation. This is because of AI usage16 Aug 2026 00:35 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mt5wxhh4sc2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mt4pt3ryac27Most of our GDP is being driven by AI data center spending in anticipation of massive demand. OpenRouter shows DeepSeek token usage surging leading to collapsing token prices. This isn’t good for OpenAI or Anthropic, who are the top customers of the hyperscalers. What happens if they bleed cash?15 Aug 2026 12:55 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mt4pt3ryac27https://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mt3dqt6sos2vAmongst all the hyperscalers, Google has raised the most debt issuance. Their latest round was $25 billion which brings their total to over $114 billion. None of this is good for the free cash flows of hyperscalers. 14 Aug 2026 23:46 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mt3dqt6sos2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3msvzw564f22bWe know Nvidia is lining up other investors because it believes the usable life of a GPU is far beyond 5 years. Read this piece about the risky business Nvidia is getting into: https://stratechery.com/2026/nvidias-risky-business/12 Aug 2026 21:07 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3msvzw564f22bhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3msu7zx3soc2zThe NFIB report is out (nfib.com/wp-content/upl…). Optimism Index rose 2.4 points to 99.8, vs 97.4 in June and is above the 52-yr avg of 98.0 - the highest reading since August 2025, with 8 of 10 components improving (biggest was hiring plans). Interest on short-term loans rose from 7.4 to 7.9%. https://nfib.com/wp-content/upl…12 Aug 2026 03:51 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3msu7zx3soc2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mslvu5zdd22rThe US trade deficit has narrowed but if you look at the blip at the end, both our exports and our imports declined. No wonder the GDP increase was pretty low. That’s not a good sign for the rest of the economy.08 Aug 2026 20:27 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mslvu5zdd22rhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mshvozgips2iJun 30, 2026: ASML 52-wk high $1999.96 Aug 12, 1996: Cisco partners with WorldCom Oct 11, 1999, Nvidia GeForce 256 Aug 12, 2026: July CPI print Aug 26, 2026: midpoint between June 30 & October 23, 2026 Nvidia releases earnings before the Fed meets Sep 11, 2026: Aug CPI print & 9/11 25th anniversary [contains quote post or other embedded content]07 Aug 2026 06:14 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mshvozgips2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mshnyz3y322wHere is research that projects AI datacenter electricity usage through the year 2033. It was done based on semiconductor purchases. I have issues with this kind of research because semiconductors are being made more power efficient and much of the demand are purchases being pulled forward. 07 Aug 2026 03:56 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mshnyz3y322whttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mseseckqm22fDuring the AI era, we’ve had many corrections, and with stellar earnings from Sandisk and Western Digital failing to move markets, it’s hard to know what catalyst is needed. The spring run up in semiconductors may have been caused by hedge funds. Emerging markets have been flat during this period.06 Aug 2026 00:36 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mseseckqm22fhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3ms7nacywfk2aWith the intervention in the Japanese yen, we should look at what happens to the yen-peso carry trade. The last time this faltered in mid 2024, take a look at ETFs like EWW and ILF. Right now, the yields on US treasuries are still higher than Japanese ones which is probably saving this trade. 03 Aug 2026 23:21 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3ms7nacywfk2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mrxliuodck2hIf the Japanese are going to intervene in the falling yen, then doesn’t that strengthen the yen, raise interest rates, and take away the Japanese carry trade? And shouldn’t that affect our stock market negatively? We’ve seen Japanese bond yields go up for a while but it hasn’t impacted our stocks. 31 Jul 2026 18:29 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrxliuodck2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mrxjbi3r5k2hThe book destruction by Anthropic reminds me of what Thanos says in Endgame: “I will shred this universe down to its last atom and then, with the stones you've collected for me, create a new one. Teeming with life that knows not what it has lost but only what it has been given. A grateful universe.” https://static.klipy.com/ii/8ce8357c78ea940b9c2015daf05ce1a5/09/a8/vfklId0Z.gif?hh=264&ww=498&mp4=8yoLqxVPOXXHK&webm=oWEtlpC1huqt131 Jul 2026 17:49 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrxjbi3r5k2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mrtrxtrtak2yKevin Warsh gave no clue as to how he would battle high inflation and you saw the bond and stock market react violently. The hardest choices require the strongest wills. In acting this way, he follows in the footsteps of Greenspan who presided over the dotcom crash. And that is destiny fulfilled. 30 Jul 2026 06:14 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrtrxtrtak2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mrtp4fbzqs2zThis day extracts a heavy toll. Meta’s stock was punished due to its free cash flow decline while Microsoft was rewarded due to reducing capex. There’s only so much cash flow left over. When there’s too many mouths and not enough to go around, investors bail. What I predicted has come to pass. [contains quote post or other embedded content]30 Jul 2026 05:23 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrtp4fbzqs2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mrqvz35yas2cI expect Kevin Warsh to say that the Fed will resume QT, allow the MBS runoff to continue, and reinforce that the Fed has no tolerance for persistently high inflation. He’ll also tie a lower balance sheet to lower policy rates and say that the Fed will rely on the trimmed mean to measure CPI.29 Jul 2026 02:48 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrqvz35yas2chttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mrq2bbgppc2zEven though Citadel believes that the Fed will raise rates, I don’t think they will. They’ll hold because Warsh has said that he wants to rely more on the CPI trimmed mean so that it strips out outliers and one time shocks. The CPI trimmed mean is pretty stable https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/median-cpi28 Jul 2026 18:32 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrq2bbgppc2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mrnngfakgc24Two different headlines about Jeff Bezos about the same story. This one from Fortune: https://fortune.com/article/jeff-bezos-amazon-leadership-advice-handling-anxiety-stress-working-harder/ and this one from TNW: https://thenextweb.com/news/bezos-stress-anxiety-working-harder-amazon-leadership. Reminder to everyone to always look behind the headlines even in a world with ever-decreasing attention spans.27 Jul 2026 19:37 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrnngfakgc24https://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mrdve7pu3c2hOil is now higher and we all know what happened the last time it was this high back in March. The only difference is back then, we still had oil reserves to draw from whereas now they are perilously low. This does not bode well for any stock.23 Jul 2026 22:32 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrdve7pu3c2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mr7aqxqfgk2eKimi has a promotion where if existing users share their referral code and it results in a download, both you and I get entered into a draw to get a year of free membership. Here is my code: https://kimi-bot.com/activities/viral-referral/share?scenario=invite&from=share_poster&invitation_code=2YA4QV22 Jul 2026 02:13 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mr7aqxqfgk2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mqzh735bzc2tWith Perplexity, you could simply select additional connectors, but now you have to select each one individually and go back to the UI to select others. I think that most Pro users selected all and it increased token consumption costs for Perplexity, so now they’re adding friction to this process.19 Jul 2026 18:52 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mqzh735bzc2thttps://bsky.app/profile/ashwinviswanath.bsky.social/post/3mqsq4yyhvc26Most of the banking stocks are on a tear and it looks like the semiconductor stocks are experiencing quite a selloff since their highs in mid June. But then again, we also know that it’s the trading revenue that’s bolstering these banking stocks. So if the AI bubble pops, what happens to them?17 Jul 2026 02:43 +0000at://did:plc:ymfoeemeftwxzpfkh5lu7c43/app.bsky.feed.post/3mqsq4yyhvc26