Historian of the recent past | Naval Postgraduate School | FPRI | Opinions are mine & don't reflect any org. New Book: Wars of Ambition https://www.amazon.com/Wars-Ambition-United-States-Struggle/dp/0190940980/ https://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3lvodrep2ys25New episode of the pod just dropped. Really enjoyed this conversation with Gregory Brew. Lucid and fascinating discussion on oil, politics, and the shadowy art of trade under sanctions [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 Aug 2025 18:31 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvodrep2ys25https://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3lu6oj2ox732gWhere does Iran go after the 12-day war? Can it restore deterrence? How much is it willing to risk in regaining some of its lost power & influence? Its options are limited and will test its commitment to self-reliance. My latest in @engelsbergideas.bsky.social https://engelsbergideas.com/notebook/irans-forever-crisis-is-far-from-over/17 Jul 2025 19:35 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lu6oj2ox732ghttps://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3lu6oj2ox732gWhere does Iran go after the 12-day war? Can it restore deterrence? How much is it willing to risk in regaining some of its lost power & influence? Its options are limited and will test its commitment to self-reliance. My latest in @engelsbergideas.bsky.social https://engelsbergideas.com/notebook/irans-forever-crisis-is-far-from-over/17 Jul 2025 19:35 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lu6oj2ox732ghttps://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3ltpnchmbwx2tHad an engaging, wide-ranging conversation with @faisalalyafai.bsky.social on Iran—what motivates its politics, what complicates its politics, and why it can be both a joy and a misery to cover. Many thanks to @newlinesmag.bsky.social for putting it together https://newlinesmag.com/podcast/what-iran-wants/11 Jul 2025 20:04 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3ltpnchmbwx2thttps://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3lsce6cscyj2hWe’re doing a thing [contains quote post or other embedded content]23 Jun 2025 19:51 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lsce6cscyj2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3lrvbev6pjf2xAli Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished. — My latest in @foreignaffairs.com https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/how-iran-lost18 Jun 2025 14:56 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lrvbev6pjf2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3lrvbev6pjf2xAli Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished. — My latest in @foreignaffairs.com https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/how-iran-lost18 Jun 2025 14:56 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lrvbev6pjf2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3lrmanpnonq25Some thoughts on the outbreak of war between Iran and Israel, and what it could mean going forward. Really appreciated this conversation with Jordan Kranse and @wsj.com https://www.wsj.com/video/series/news-explainers/irans-military-arsenal-against-israel/AB26B34C-D30A-4D62-A195-A32C59668E2E15 Jun 2025 00:49 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lrmanpnonq25https://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3lm74qloytr27Iran is not abandoning the Houthis. If anything, the Houthis are more vital to Tehran than they’ve ever been. My latest in @unherd.com https://unherd.com/newsroom/iran-is-rethinking-its-houthi-strategy/07 Apr 2025 04:29 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lm74qloytr27https://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3lm74qloytr27Iran is not abandoning the Houthis. If anything, the Houthis are more vital to Tehran than they’ve ever been. My latest in @unherd.com https://unherd.com/newsroom/iran-is-rethinking-its-houthi-strategy/07 Apr 2025 04:29 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lm74qloytr27https://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3llxkz7zxho25Very cool! Congratulations, Sam! [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Apr 2025 04:23 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3llxkz7zxho25https://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3lgjabvqjf62eIt was a real pleasure to sit down with @abuaardvark.bsky.social and @pomeps.bsky.social for a wide ranging discussion on my new book, Iran’s current political crisis, and shifting US policy https://pomeps.org/wars-of-ambition-s-14-ep-324 Jan 2025 20:27 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lgjabvqjf62ehttps://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3lgjabvqjf62eIt was a real pleasure to sit down with @abuaardvark.bsky.social and @pomeps.bsky.social for a wide ranging discussion on my new book, Iran’s current political crisis, and shifting US policy https://pomeps.org/wars-of-ambition-s-14-ep-324 Jan 2025 20:27 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lgjabvqjf62ehttps://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3ldqva3grdl2rVery honored to see Wars of Ambition make this list and be among such illustrious company https://engelsbergideas.com/reviews/books-of-the-year-2024/20 Dec 2024 17:15 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3ldqva3grdl2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3lcsohejrcd2kThere is much that is unclear about Iran’s decisions over the last week. Iran has abandoned the revolution’s life’s work without a fight. There is little chance that such an extreme external collapse occured without severe turmoil inside the regime. This story is far from over.08 Dec 2024 16:54 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lcsohejrcd2khttps://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3lcsohejrcd2kThere is much that is unclear about Iran’s decisions over the last week. Iran has abandoned the revolution’s life’s work without a fight. There is little chance that such an extreme external collapse occured without severe turmoil inside the regime. This story is far from over.08 Dec 2024 16:54 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lcsohejrcd2khttps://bsky.app/profile/osto.bsky.social/post/3lcqv7gbpay2kIRGC Telegram accounts coming to terms with what’s happening is something to behold. Their entire world is imploding and their side—the resistance—isn’t even resisting. There’s scant attempt to paint a rosy picture, or tease out some greater strategy. They’re simply losing.07 Dec 2024 23:50 +0000at://did:plc:ypchnunaicrxntgp3qlzc2y7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lcqv7gbpay2k