Economic columnist at Washington Post | Data aficionado | Email: Heather.long@washpost.comhttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lnnlklajtk2n44% of Americans now believe they will be WORSE OFF financially in a year (due mainly to Trump's tariffs) We've never seen anything like this before. Not even in the Great Recession or stagflation era (31% thought they would be worse off in 1 yr in early 1980) via Uof Michigan Survey of Consumers25 Apr 2025 15:56 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lnnlklajtk2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lkqvgjdu5k2uFed Chair Powell key takeaways: 1) Recession risk "has moved up, but it’s not high." 2) Don't expect May rate cut. "We’re not going to be in any hurry to move" 3) "Uncertainty is remarkably high" he says over and over 4) Fed is watching big drop in sentiment, but "the hard data are pretty solid"19 Mar 2025 19:15 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkqvgjdu5k2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lkokdirhes2kBig congrats to @kedseconomist.com on the launch of her great new podcast "Optimist Economy." Kathryn doesn't just talk about problems; She puts forward ideas to solve them. Her work is inspiring and I always leave w/new takeaways https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/optimist-economy/id180262528218 Mar 2025 20:51 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkokdirhes2khttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lk4bp3ki3c23Must read from reporting today from @crampell.bsky.social & @ashendruk.com How Trump is reshaping reality by hiding data "The Trump administration is deleting taxpayer-funded data — information that Americans use to make sense of the world." https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2025/government-data-trump-deletion/11 Mar 2025 14:29 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lk4bp3ki3c23https://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lk274t3t422eNEWS: I'm excited to announce that I'll be interviewing Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, April 4 at 11:25am alongside James Nelson at the #SABEW25 conference. There's much to discuss! Join us at this great event for business and economic journalists, journalism students and PR professionals.10 Mar 2025 18:38 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lk274t3t422ehttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3liwnmmnjds2qMost on this site know that federal workers are good people who work hard. But it's striking to see the data. Federal workers put in more hours a week than anyone except military and self-employed. Federal workers take fewer days off than almost any others https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/02/21/are-federal-workers-lazy-lets-look-data/24 Feb 2025 15:21 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3liwnmmnjds2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lipe7v2bkc2hImportant post from one of former Gov. Cuomo’s victims. [contains quote post or other embedded content]21 Feb 2025 17:44 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lipe7v2bkc2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3li5k64em4s2vTake a look at this chart. We've been experiencing what I call "whack-a-mole" inflation. There have been many eye-popping spikes (i.e. eggs). This has a deep psychological impact. They fear what will spike next. This backdrop makes Trump's tariffs even worse https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/02/14/trump-inflation-tariffs-economy/14 Feb 2025 15:43 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3li5k64em4s2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lhycqsdsps2xYou can really see the high monthly inflation gain in January (0.5%) on the bar chart. [Forecasts were for just a 0.3% gain] Why? -Gas prices up -Energy/utility prices up -Food prices (esp. groceries) up -Transportation costs up -Rent still rising (albeit much more slowly now)12 Feb 2025 13:47 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lhycqsdsps2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lhyccevl6s2xJUST IN: Inflation ticked back up to 3% (y/y) in January --> the highest since June. The monthly gain was 0.5% (above expectations). Rent made up 30% of the increase. Gas and food also contributed. "Core CPI," which excludes food and gas, rose 3.3%. Core CPI has basically stalled since June.12 Feb 2025 13:39 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lhyccevl6s2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lhgpgflen227Former Treasury official Natasha Sarin writes "there is no legitimate reason for [Elon Musk/DOGE] to have this access" to the federal payment system. Sarin outlines just how scary this is https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/02/05/elon-musk-doge-treasury-payment-system/05 Feb 2025 13:46 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lhgpgflen227https://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lh2yohio4225President Trump's trade war is here. Trump said Friday there is nothing Canada, Mexico and China can do to stop it. 1) Tariffs will be enacted on Feb. 1 2) Tariffs on oil and gas by Feb. 18 3) Oil tariff could be 10% 4) He said there "absolutely" will be tariffs on Europe, too.31 Jan 2025 21:59 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lh2yohio4225https://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lh2g4ci2322mThis is alarming: The highest career official at Treasury is leaving after a clash w/Elon Musk allies over access to sensitive payment systems. Those payment systems distribute ~$6 trillion in US gov't payments. Only a few people are supposed to have access to that payment system.31 Jan 2025 16:27 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lh2g4ci2322mhttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lh24txojck2bJust In: Progress on inflation is stalling. PCE inflation was up 2.6% in 2024. PCE excluding food and energy was up 2.8%. Both metrics have risen slightly since the summer. Now President Trump is about to add tariffs on Mexico and Canada that will almost certainly raise prices.31 Jan 2025 13:41 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lh24txojck2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lgxmpsu7hk2cWow. Look at the big surge in Americans buying "durable goods" in Q4 2024. Was that people trying to get ahead of tariffs?? We heard many anecdotes about that happening, but it's striking to see a 12.1% surge in durable goods in Q4.30 Jan 2025 13:47 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lgxmpsu7hk2chttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lgxmk5ki6s2cHere's the deeper dive on Q4 GDP growth: US consumer spending is driving almost all the growth. Gov't is a very small contributor now. Note: Biz investment was a drag on Q4 GDP (due to a big decline in equipment purchases). We want to see this pick up in 2025.30 Jan 2025 13:44 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lgxmk5ki6s2chttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lgxm2c5bek26Just in: The US economy grew 2.8% in 2024, another year of strong growth. President Trump inherited a very good economy. Q4 growth was 2.3%, driven mainly by strong consumer spending. GDP growth under Biden (adj. for inflation) 6.1% in 2021 2.5% in 2022 2.9% in 2023 2.8% in 202430 Jan 2025 13:35 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lgxm2c5bek26https://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lgvpuznjo22wNEWS: Fed Chair Powell says he has "had no contact" with President Trump. [Remember in Davos last week Trump demanded that interest rates should decline in the US -- and around the world ]29 Jan 2025 19:38 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lgvpuznjo22whttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lgsrmc4vls2kMust read by @crampell.bsky.social today: "Americans are watching an inflation bait-and-switch" Trump promised to bring down prices on Day 1 "A week into office, he has offered zero plans to do so," Rampell says. "Worse, he has undertaken a litany of measures that would raise the cost of living."28 Jan 2025 15:31 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lgsrmc4vls2khttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lgqbdc5b4s2hWhat a chart... The US share of single moms (19%) is actually pretty similar to many other advanced economy nations. What is different? = US child poverty (20%) is way higher than other nations. From @andrewvandam.bsky.social https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/01/24/kindergarten-cop-single-parent-capital/27 Jan 2025 15:35 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lgqbdc5b4s2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/byheatherlong.bsky.social/post/3lgg5khyzuk25NEW: In the ‘Great Stay’ economy, Americans feel stuck Hiring right now is anemic (esp. outside healthcare & gov) People aren't moving Promotions and bonuses are down People even keep cars for record time People feel cemented in place. That's tough if you don't like your current job or home.23 Jan 2025 15:01 +0000at://did:plc:z5jsji57ze3tpetrt67s5ee3/app.bsky.feed.post/3lgg5khyzuk25