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Ethan Mollick
emollick.bsky.social
did:plc:flxq4uyjfotciovpw3x3fxnu
We can now say pretty definitively that AI progress is well ahead of expectations from a few years ago.
In 2022, the Forecasting Research Institute had super forecasters & AI experts predict AI progress. They gave a 2.3% & 8.6% (respectively) probability of an AI Math Olympiad gold by 2025…
2025-09-02T12:52:23.308Z