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Julia Coronado
jc-econ.bsky.social
did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof
There is no silver bullet indicator on US employment, but the ISM non-mfg employment index, particularly the 3m avg has some statistically significant predictive power. The March decline at a minimum supports the idea that a good part of the surprising strength in March payrolls was noise
2026-04-06T14:11:14.456Z