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Lukas Brunner
lukasbrunner.bsky.social
did:plc:jl6edrh7vzxvso5bscjodftt
The bias weakens with global warming (see paper for details rdcu.be/dBByU) leading to an overestimation of temperature extreme changes.
10% expected baseline frequency -> max. increase x10 -> 100% extremes in the future.
In the biased case 👇 the ratio can exceed x13!
5/🧵
2024-03-19T12:33:11.557Z