Co-founder at Asana and Good Ventures (a funding partner of Coefficient Giving). Strange looper. You can just build the things you want to see in the world. “Criminally underliked”https://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.orghttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3mtotqdd2hs23I'm not an oil trader (and what follows isn't investment advice), but I've been trying to follow what the war has done to oil and other critical inputs, and especially who is bearing the cost. It turns out most of this is answerable from public data (EIA, IEA, FRED). A few examples: 1/722 Aug 2026 17:53 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtotqdd2hs23https://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3mti6ajbphs2bwhy did they call it a melanoma vaccine and not just nomamelanoma? [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 Aug 2026 02:12 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3mti6ajbphs2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3mth6m4thj22xI got this prediction very wrong. Trump says there are no talks and declared the Strait itself a U.S. Territory. Axios even wrote a critical headline! These IMFPortwatch graphs only show up to Sunday, but news reports say the trend so far this week is a trickle. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-traffic-slows-uncertainty-over-waterway-persists-2026-08-19/ [contains quote post or other embedded content]19 Aug 2026 16:46 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3mth6m4thj22xhttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3mt3n6ut42s25multiple sources say Axios will announce exclusive reporting about an imminent peace deal regarding the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. ships will be expected to transit as soon as Monday morning.15 Aug 2026 02:35 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3mt3n6ut42s25https://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3msojrarzc22wI've recently learned there *is* post editing on bluesky, effectively by convention. The client must allow you to edit + decide how to show edited posts. Bluesky will show it as something effectively new. But European bskies live in the future. Les fautes de frappe n'existent pas en France. 1/209 Aug 2026 21:29 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3msojrarzc22whttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3msocfsjx322kThe fact that something comes from sci fi should neither cause you to dismiss it nor believe anything conclusively. A lot of sci fi is explicitly designed to explore real future ideas and that can be useful, because otherwise status quo bias dominates all thoughts about the future. [contains quote post or other embedded content]09 Aug 2026 19:17 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3msocfsjx322khttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3msljunyzac2xeveryone dunking on how easy it is to keep AIs contained this week has been fined 1 watching of Ex Machina08 Aug 2026 16:53 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3msljunyzac2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3msgdkfpbgk2xMETA: so how do we fit the models better to the Evil Son 2.0 benchmark? [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 Aug 2026 15:16 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3msgdkfpbgk2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3msdzm66gj22xwhat most new SpaceX investors probably don't understand is that it's *expected* to take 7-8 quarters of everything getting destroyed before they get the real benefits of deep conviction: an iterative process that leads to fast eval and re-use of the promises they come up with to deflect press heat05 Aug 2026 17:13 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3msdzm66gj22xhttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3ms6t7pkmqs2aGood news: some of the US international aid funding has been restored! I graphed it here to put the numbers in context of the scale of the cuts. The article says PEPFAR restoration is still to come. 🤞 [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Aug 2026 15:35 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3ms6t7pkmqs2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3ms4nbwoubs25latest gop polls [contains quote post or other embedded content]02 Aug 2026 18:44 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3ms4nbwoubs25https://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3mrzzictra22xWhat's the best thing Claude has "refused" to do in a session for you so far?01 Aug 2026 17:44 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrzzictra22xhttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3mrvqjf5d6s2zI guess it’s a sign of the times [contains quote post or other embedded content]31 Jul 2026 00:53 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrvqjf5d6s2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3mrpk54e3jc23IPO price discovery will be completed in approximately two months.28 Jul 2026 13:43 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrpk54e3jc23https://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3mridayxpek2cWe already spent 1/3 of the SPR as a buffer against sanctions when the Ukraine War started, so we began the Iran conflict behind. (I am surprised this does not come up more as blaming Biden/democrats for a shortfall, but that might start appearing soon.) 1/2 [contains quote post or other embedded content]25 Jul 2026 16:51 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3mridayxpek2chttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3mrickdfmu22cI cannot confirm it works well, but this now supports poly relationships too, not just "relationships classic". Presets available for common structures: Kitchen Table, Parallel Poly, Hierarchy Honored, Relationship Anarchy, and Solo Poly. I don't know what these mean, but Fable does ? [contains quote post or other embedded content]25 Jul 2026 16:39 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrickdfmu22chttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3mrgavf6wi22iThese charts are now available interactively at damstrait.net Learn about: production trends, reserve trends, how demand destruction breaks down, what happens if the war continues, and more. [contains quote post or other embedded content]24 Jul 2026 21:04 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrgavf6wi22ihttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3mrg27fl7ik2chello fast mode my old friend I've come to code with you again https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-524 Jul 2026 19:04 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrg27fl7ik2chttps://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3mrfxccrkjk24The 18 of you who vaguely like the idea of the moral parliament will be thrilled to hear about a new spinoff: the partner parliament. In Partner Parliament, instead of you fighting with your partner, a group of agents debate the topic and give you ways of looking at it. partnerparliament.net [contains quote post or other embedded content]24 Jul 2026 18:12 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrfxccrkjk24https://bsky.app/profile/moskov.goodventures.org/post/3mrfrifz4ds2xAs the war drags on, I keep wondering about the "demand destruction" that must come from the hole in the world's oil supply. Are people driving less? Taking less trips? What I see: the pain is not evenly distributed. Some countries basically forced themselves into recession right away in March. 1/524 Jul 2026 16:28 +0000at://did:plc:z7oad4td5k4tfb4dttzjym7r/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrfrifz4ds2x