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Christopher Peters
statwonk.bsky.social
did:plc:o7njrk6ywvz2qcix77dx56rd
> How long do major Strait of Hormuz disruptions last?
I fit an exponential duration model to 5 episodes going back to 1981, then extended it with a mixture model calibrated from 11 tariff escalation / de-escalation decisions (to incorporate the chance of reversal).
https://statwonk.com/hormuz-duration-model.html
2026-03-08T22:50:26.502Z