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RACE RATING CHANGE: Texas U.S. Senate
🟡 Tossup → 🔵 Tilt D
Our model gives James Talarico (D) a 55% chance of defeating Ken Paxton (R). Talarico has consistently led in polling, but his advantage remains within the margin of error, and the race is still extremely close.
2026-09-14T13:41:27.857Z